Arkady Dubnov

The press conference was organized within the framework of  "International Press-Center "Dialogue": Diversification of the Sources of international News for Armenian Media" project. This project of Region Research Center is supported by the OSCE office in Yerevan.

Ttopics: Integration processes and security issues of the countries in Central Asia
Devaluation of the national currencies of EEU countries and the prospects of the EEU
Central Asia and the ISIS.

David Stepanyan, www.arminfo.am

- Is the devaluation of the ruble and the tenge exchange rate, given the interconnectedness of economies, a kind of an alarm bell for the other EEU countries, and particularly to Armenia?Do you think the development of common measures to counter the fall of national currencies possible?

Answer –Yes, it's a ringing bell, but it is not very alarming for Armenia, it is not a raw material exporting country, in contrast to Russia and Kazakhstan, for whom the cheaper national currency is beneficial to maintain the competitiveness of exports. However, some devaluation will likely have to be arranged also for those CIS countries which do not export raw materials and in countries that do not even affiliate with the EEU, but who have a relatively substantial levels of trade with Russia, for example, Tajikistan.

- Do you think the issue of creating a common EEU currency is still topical? What are the pros and cons of this idea?

Answer - No, the introduction of a common currency in the EEU is not on the agenda of its activities. This was spoken about also by high-ranking officials of the Eurasian Commission, Russia and Kazakhstan before the onset of the active phase of the economic crisis. Even more so now, and all the talk about the introduction of a reserve currency in the coming years is a projection to satisfy the ambitions of some leaders.

- Russia's policy in the post-Soviet space, in particular, in relation to Armenia, continues to rely on assistance in guaranteeing the security of the partners. Meanwhile, time has shown that today influence is primarily secured through joint economic projects, or, if you prefer the example of Germany, successful economic expansion. What do you think the prospect of continuing this foreign policy are?

Answer - I do not think that the Russian policy towards Armenia will change substantially in the near future, the fat years are gone, and the lean years are coming, they will have to draw in the waist and hardly any new large-scale projects can be expected. The only thing is that certain amendments are possible due to the inevitable increase of the regional activities by Iran after the sanctions are lifted.

- Can the Collective Security Treaty Organization confront the current challenges of the security of the participantstates on the territory under its control, threats coming from Afghanistan and the territories controlled by terrorists and the ISIS?

Answer - It will depend on the specific nature of these threats. The Collective Security Treaty Organization in accordance with its charter documents may come into play in the event of external aggression against the members of the Organization and an official request by the leadership of the country for help. Until now, the CSTO has had no experience of such an intervention, because the threats have been of a purely domestic nature, for example, during the Osh events in Kyrgyzstan in 2010.

Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia

- Mr. Dubnov, how do you assess the prospects of the EEU against the background of the deepening economic crisis caused by falling oil prices and anti-Russian sanctions?

Answer–I think the role of the EEU in overcoming the current crisis is hardly noticeable.

- How strong is the influence of ISIS in Central Asia?

Answer – It is increasing, and primarily, it is propaganda, it is of ideological character. The more the authorities oppress the promises to establish justice in the Islamic caliphate in the "province of Khorasan," in which the strategists of ISIS include the entire region of Central Asia and Afghanistan, the more popular among the population of the region they become. Tajikistan is a vivid example, where the regime pursues Rakhmon and seeks to ban the activities of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), whose members are usually supporters of the traditional Islam; this leads to the radicalization of mainly young Muslims. The appeal of the ISIS in such an atmosphere cannot help to grow.

- The incumbent Turkish authorities are actively promoting the idea of pan-Turkism. Kazakhstan has actively supported this tendency. What is the situation like in this regard in other Central Asian countries?

Answer – The ideas of Pan-Turkism are perceived with greater or lesser success in all Central Asian countries, except Tajikistan, a Persian-speaking country, a circumstance that brings it closer to Iran and partly to Afghanistan. However, I think you should not exaggerate the importance of the pan-Turkic ideology in the region, it is used by the authorities or by specific groups when there is a need to show some opposition to the imposed orientation towards Euro-Atlantic values ​​and proximity to the so-called "Russian world", and sometimes also to show loyalty to Turkey hoping to get some financial or other kind of assistance from it. In the recent years, such demarches have been used by the leaders of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. For example, it is estimated that the business interests of the Kyrgyz President AlmazbekAtambayev have long been concentrated in Turkey.

Gagik Baghdasaryan, www.newsarmenia.am

- Mr. Dubnov, can the EEU countries to create a system capable of protecting the economy of the Union from external shocks and negative factors? Can the transition to a single currency or mutual settlements in national currencies be sucha mechanism?

Answer–No, it can’t. And not because the EEU is weak or awkward. The Union member states are in this way or other part of the global economy and cannot be completely insulated from the disasters that shake it. To avoid this, they will all have to come back to the Soviet Union with its planned economy, the dollar invariably equal to 62 kopecks and the rare instances of happiness when they manage to get a couple of rolls of toilet paper. Remember what happened to the Soviet Union, when in the 1980s the oil prices began to fall. No, it will take autarky, total isolation from the world. It would be more reliable to build a system like the one in North Korea, in that case there will be dependence on China only…

- Are the EEU states absolutely vulnerable to the economic shocks in place in Russia or do they have certain "safety cushion", allowing to confront negative processes?

Ответ – There is no such thing as absolute vulnerability. Every country has its own "safety cushion". Kazakhstan has its own natural resources, a National Fund established for dire years, Kyrgyzstan has not fully lost the preferences in trade with China which it received as a result of joining the EEU; Armenia, in the end, has the huge diaspora, who never abandoned in the times of trouble, and a long-term experience of life in the conditions of economic blockade.

- Do you think that the devaluation of the Kazakh currency was justified and how will it affect the economy of this country and the EEU?

Answer - The introduction of the floating exchange rate fortenge seems to be an absolutely justified measure to me, its main drawback was the belated decision of the Kazakh authoritiesI do not think any country ever managed to avoid social shocks in such situations, but in the medium term it contributes to economic recovery, provided the necessary structural reforms are implemented simultaneously. But this requires political will and the consolidation of the elites.

- How long do you think the ruble exchange rate fall will continue? Does this constitute threats only or can exporters benefit from this situation?

Answer–If only I could know the mysterious details ... I have no such knowledge, what is more, if anyone tellsyou that he knows the answer to this question, do not believe him. And the politicians are the least of all to be trusted in such cases. Not only exporters can benefit from this, but under the conditions set out above (see the answer to the previous question) everyone will benefit.

Karine Asatryan, www.a1plus.am

- Can the fall of the ruble and other national currencies of the EEU lead to the creation of the single currency within the EEU?

Answer – No.

Armen Minasyan, www.panorama.am

- Does Armenia have an opportunity to maintain normal relations with the West considering its membership in the EEU?

Answer–Yes, it does. After all, with all the bombast of its creators the EEU has not yet become a "prison of nations". It is a different matter that with the entry into the Union Armenia has become less leeway in geopolitical terms. But if we assume that the main foreign policy priority of Armenia is to ensure its security, we have to remember the Marxist classic: "Freedom is the realization of necessity" ...

- What does the future of the EEUlook like to you in the context of the confrontation between Russia and the West?

Answer–I am notvery optimistic. But the Union will survive. The CIS is not dead yet either ... Do you know why? Because very little depends on it. Do you remember the joke about the elusive Joe?

- Do you think there will be an escalation of frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space, in particular, I mean the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Answer–There is probably be no war, but troubles of varying degrees of intensity, including the military, cannot be avoided. The situation, I believe, will change for the better by increased activity of Iran in the region after the final abolition of the sanctions imposed on it.

- The next meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Russia is scheduled next September. Do you expect any serious progress in the Karabakh settlement, due to the outcome of the meeting?

Answer –I do not expect it. Is such progress beneficial to anyone? I mean the politicians...

- What impact will the agreement on Iran's nuclear program have in the South Caucasus region and Armenia? What is Moscow's position on this issue?

Answer – This is a very interesting question. I think that significant shifts in the balance of power in the region are lying ahead; these will be handy for Armenia if Armenians do not get very hot-headed, pulling the arms of the partners. I cannot vouch for Moscow's position, it will first take its clearly articulated interests in the region, whether they will primarily be determined by the desire to start from scratch with Washington here again (the worse it is for them, the better it is for us) or whether the interests of the allies will be taken into account.

- What, in your opinion, are the prospects for Azerbaijan's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and is such an option possible without a final settlementof the Karabakh conflict?

Answer – Why does Azerbaijan need the EEU? Baku feels good, being quite independent from Moscow with strong trumps in its hands – oil, access to the sea, a beneficial strategic location ... I would even add the following: Moscow seeks Baku’s disposition no less than Baku is interested in Moscow.

- In your opinion, how topicalis the Commonwealth of Independent Statesat the moment?

Answer - I'm sorry, but is there anybody who is seriously concerned about this question, whether the CIS is topical or not? The Commonwealth is remembered no more frequently than the summits of the CIS are held: these are useful due to the abundance of formal and informal contacts between the leaders of the countries, which otherwise would have to be specially organized, being both troublesome and costly. The CIS is hence topical to these very leaders. To the rest, it is interesting to look at the groupphotos, to see, for example, how the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, standing next to each other due to alphabetical order, are trying to avoid eye contact.

Tatev Harutyunyan, www.aravot.am        

- Recently, more and increasingly wider circles have begun to speak about Russia's isolation and the deadlocked EEU project. Opinions have been voiced that the EEUis destined tothe same fate as the CIS, CSTO and that the EEU exists only on paper. What are your projections on the matter?

Answer – See the answer to a similar question above.

- In January-June of this year, the trade of EEU members with Russia decreased: by 21.9%with Armenia, by 16.2% with Belarus, and by 34.5% with Kazakhstan. Can these figures substantiate the claim that the EEUis an inefficient structure?

Answer - Partly because it is. On the other hand, the EEU became operational only 8 months ago, and, at an extremely unfavorable time for it - the crisis, the fall in oil prices, the sanctions against Russia and so on. Apart from this, theEEUseems premature and politically opportunistic. However, the claim that the Eurasian integration is a far-fetched idea, it would be wrong. It is a different matter that Armenia's joining the EEU in the current situation looks artificial and forced, but we have already spoken about it above. Let us readdress this question in ten years, if we are still alive, as Count Leo Tolstoy said.