“The Role of External Factors in the Karabakh Process - 2018: Mediators, Regional Actors and International Organizations”: Page 2 of 8

Vyacheslav Mamedov -The war in Karabakh will be extremely unpopular with the key players on the international arena. That is why it will be impossible for either Armenia or Azerbaijan to enjoy international support, should there be a military escalation. Within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group activities, Russia and the USA have arrived at a rare unanimity on the methods of the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. These are the methods of peace and compliance. These countries are currently spending colossal intellectual and financial resources along the Syria - Ukraine - Sanctions axis and in a number of less significant vectors as well. Simply there are no resources to provide the parties of the potential conflict in Nagorno Karabakh with economic and political support. I would say the Turkish factor is an exaggeration if viewed as a factor to push the war forward in Karabakh. Turkey is facing more serious problems with the Kurdish extremism and the war in Syria.

Arman Melikyan - In my opinion, in the upcoming six to twelve months, it is most probable that very little will be left from the former placable unanimity of the mediators...  At some point in the future, the American-Iranian confrontation may lead to a new spark of hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone. That is to say, the resumption of an armed conflict may act as a detonator for the destabilization of the situation in the Northern and North-Eastern provinces of the IRI and vice versa. In case of such developments, it would be hardly possible to maintain the unanimity, currently present among American and Russian co-chairs, for the strategic goals of these superpowers are just too contradictory to each other. If Washington prioritizes the overturn of the theocratic regime ruling in Iran, Moscow regards cooperation with this very regime as a certain guarantee to ensure and promote its own military, political and economic interests in South Caucasus, and partly, in Middle East, too. However, it is obvious that only time will show which direction things will truly develop in.

On the Recognition of the Independence of the NKR by Armenia in Case of War Scenario and the Reactions of the International Community

Andrey Areshev - It is common knowledge that the issue has been discussed in Armenia multiply, and the third president has explained many times why Yerevan refrains from doing it (right after the “four-day war”, too). I assume that the position of the Armenian diplomacy on the issue of the recognition of the Artsakh Republic will hardly change. In addition, I cannot see whether this recognition will happen in case of the resumption of hostilities...

Arman Melikyan - In case of the resumption of large-scale hostilities on the contact line of the military forces in the conflict zone, it is quite probable that Armenia will recognize the independence of the NKR/Artsakh Republic. In this context, the statements made by the Prime Minister of Armenia that he considers the return of Stepanakert to the negotiations table as beneficial for the rapid achievement of a mutually acceptable solution may